...Simon asserts that phone calls like this are being made by the administration, and that regardless of their reason for expelling him in the first place, using his immigration status as leverage to stop him from coming to campus is wholly inappropriate.
Operator: And what is he doing?
Caller: He lit [inaudible] on fire. Shouldn't [inaudible] …check his passport.
Operator: What was that, ‘mam?’
Caller: I think he’s here illegally. Check his [inaudible] visa.
submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments]
Singles: 10-10 (-3.63u)
Parlay: 0-0 (0u): None
BBDLS: 0-1 (-1.2u)
SBBDLS: 0-1 (-0.5u)
Teasers: 0-1 (-3u)
Tennessee at Houston(+6): Huge first game to open up the card. TEN controls their playoff destiny. Win and they are in. Houston is already in but O'brien says he isn't resting players. I can't imagine he sticks to that plan. There is no reason for him to risk any injury to anyone important. I think Vegas is charging the public on the TEN spread. My algo has this game a PK with TEN -2.5 on a neutral field. With the return of Derrick Henry and Tennessee's top red-zone offense combined with 0 reasons for the Texan's to play a full game, this one is an easy ml parlay candidate. There aren't many props I will be looking at on this final weekend, but Henry is one of them. A week of rest and a win and in scenario for the player that the offense runs through? Sign me up.
Extra note: The KC/LAC game is at 1pm. The only chance HOU has to move up is for KC to lose in the 1pm game, then HOU would be majorly incentivised to win this game. May put a BBDLS in that has this combination. Which btw, if you believe the game is rigged to get the Patriots to another superbowl, having KC and HOU swap seeding and make KC and BAL eliminate one of each other seems like the easiest road for New England...
Cleveland at Cincinnati(+3): Annnnd here we have the first coin flip of the day. Half a season ago this would have been an easy Browns pick. Now who knows who is going to get up for this game. Im sure everyone in Cleveland would like to end the season on a win. At least it will make a look back a the whole season a little less bitter for them. CIN has clinched a first round pick in the draft. Does this mean that Dalton and Co. are going to take his probably last opportunity as a Bengals starter to showcase their talents for next year's money? Both teams will most likely rely heavily on their running games so I will be fading this one except to maybe take a Bengals ml in a BBDLS
Chicago at Minnesota(+3): Another divisional match up here. This game opened at MIN -7 and because they cant move up or down from the 6 seed it looks like they will be resting most of their key players. CHI is only playing for pride and has only one win against a team with a winning record this year, luckily for them it was against this team, at full strength! Not knowing who is going to play for MIN will keep me from looking their way even with the points and HF.
Indianapolis at Jacksonville(+4): Just like the CLE/CIN game this one is anyone's game. We have a few of these this week. Teams that are both out of the playoffs with no incentive to win other than pride and future contracts. Ill expect IND to try and replicate last weeks effort on the ground as JAX has a run defense with season stats almost identical to CAR. JAX is hit or miss so in the final (home) game of the season, catching points...Ill have to ride dog or fade.
Atlanta at Tampa Bay(-2): Another game with two teams who have zero post season opportunity. Both have been playing above their records over the month of December with ATL coming into this having won their last 3 games. TB has been crap at home this year so far going 2-5. Can they pick up this last game and finish the season .500? My algo is saying no. Currently it is siding with the surge of defense being played by the Falcons in the second half of the season and with less reliable targets for Winston to throw to and a fantastic match up for Julio, Im gonna have to side with the road team here.
Washington at Dallas(-11): Boy did the Cowboys really suck last week. They couldn't put up 10 points on an Eagle's secondary that has been getting burned all year. An Eagle's secondary that just gave up like 35 points to the Case Keenum lead Redskins... I mean one would think that Dallas, playing for a miracle to get in the playoffs, would give this game everything and dominate from start to finish. But, why woulnt they just do that last week? Plus, Keenum didn't look that bad (although it was against the Giants secondary). Eleven is a lot of points for a 45 total. That would mean Dallas would have to put up 27 -31 points and keep WAS at 13-17. Doable but not profitable at a -110 bet. Will probably save Dallas for a ML parlay or WAS and the points for a BBDLS. Won't be looking props except Zeke who will be facing a Skins D that gave up almost 200 last week to Saquan alone...
Extra trends: The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six against teams with a losing record and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 against NFC East teams. Washington is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
New Orleans at Carolina(-13): Well, Will Greer didnt spark the fire in the dying CAR team. CAR has lost their last 7 games and has given up an average 32 ppg over those games. The Rivera defense is over. The Saints on the other hand are operating on the opposite end of the spectrum. Brees had that stumble against ATL but other than that he has looked great as the Saints offense has put 34 or more points in 5 of their last 6. Two TDs is a lot, but if there are a few teams that could do it more often than 53% in this spot, NO is one of them.
Philadelphia at NY Giants(+4): A meaningful match up for two teams, but only one of them is playing this game. Philly controls their playoff destiny, as they seemed to have for the last few weeks. A win here with crown them NFC East champs and send them to the playoffs. A loss + a DAL win would end Philly's season and send the Cowboys to the post season. My algo is all over this one for a high scoring game. Both secondary's suck. Greg Ward has quietly become a go to guy for Wentz, posting 15 receptions for 166 yards and 1 touchdown on 23 targets over his last 3 games. Jones seems to favor Tate in terms of targets, but Shepherd has the softest match up going against Jalen Mills.
Pittsburgh at Baltimore(+2): Baltimore is in the playoffs and has the guaranteed one seed in the AFC. PIT is seeing their playoff chances slip away. With their loss last week to the Jets, they now need to win this game AND a loss from the Titans. The good news for them is that BAL has their spot locked up and looks to rest a TON of key players. Even so the backup, RG3, isn't the worst guy to step in. He is basically the B team version of Jackson. Well, maybe the C team, haha but even a C team running QB seems more dangerous than whoever PIT has been putting on the field at QB this season. This game's total has been dropping as the week goes on so there is a good chance I just skip it all together as low totals aren't usually good games to target props. Also, there is some serious RLM. Almost 60% of bets are on BAL but the line has gone from BAL -3 to BAL +2...
NY Jets at Buffalo(-1): Interesting game here. NY played spoiler last week handing the Steelers and upset and severely hurting their playoff chances. Buffalo is riding high with a guaranteed post season appearance this year, their first in a while. There are already rumors that the Bills won't play starters the whole game, and why would they? They are locked into the 5 spot in the AFC, no reason to risk injury to anyone. With another low projected total, I will probably ride dog or avoid this game all together.
Miami at New England (-16.5): Two very important factors in this game. One, its the Dolphins defense. Two, its the Patriots at home. End Analysis. .
Just kidding! That should be all we need to know, but just for the sake of depth, I will add a little more, haha. NE is playing for the number 2 seed in the playoffs and HFA in their first game. MIA with a loss and a NYG win would move up in the draft order. There is also some suprising RLM in this one. Almost 60% of the bets are on MIA +14.5 open, but the line is climbing to now 16.5. This feels like a classic Patriots 31-13 game with 2 or 3 picks, maybe a defensive score, and use of alllll the running backs. I struggle when taking Patriot props as they are so hard to predict who will get the usage on any given day. If you have a site that offers odds on a defensive score, I would take +odds in this context.
Green Bay at Detroit(+12): Well this is another playoff bound favorite vs. a team in rebuild looking at 2020. DET did get back Kerryon Johnson at RB. The dual threat of Johnson and Scarborough helped take some load off Blough and DET actually held the lead in the DEN game late. Unfortunately DET defense is still one of the worst and a quick 14 points from DEN took this game away. The first time these two played it was close in GB with DET leading the whole game...however, that game feels like a different season with the different paths these two teams have taken since that game. I expect GB to play starters the whole game and lock up a chance at higher seeding and possibly HFA.
LA Chargers at Kansas City(-9): Does KC want to play Baltimore first, or NE first? Essentially if they win this game they get NE and if they lose (and the Texans win) they would get BAL. I would assume they are not happy to play either but alas, the road to the SB leads through both for KC. This year, 11 out of 15 of the LAC games have been won or lost by 7 points or less. Unfortunately for LA, they are 2-9 in those games. This is actually a tough spread to cap. Anything over 7 feels so hard, I mean 11 out of 15... Ill probably be on KC ml in my parlays so I may throw a balance of LA in one.
Arizona at LA Rams(-6): Man, I was all over the Rams last Saturday, and a win by them would have kept their playoff chances alive and netted us a huge win on our free roll for that game. Sadly, they couldnt stop two third and longs. Now I sit here wondering if they are even going to get up for this game. AZ has been an underdog most of the year and as a team has put in good effort in most if not all their games. Drake has been an absolute beast since his trade from MIA. Im honestly not sure why this line is what it is. Maybe I am missing something, but it looks like there is a TON of value on AZ. Maybe even ML value.
Oakland at Denver(-3.5): So the Raiders still have a chance here. If both TEN and PIT lose and IND and OAK win...OAK is in. It's actually possible, especially if the Chargers an do something random against the Chiefs. For DEN, Lock coming in has been great for them. They are 3-1 since he was named starter and the only game they lost was against the Chiefs. A big key for me in this one is whether or not Josh Jacobs returns. If he does, OAK and the points looks juicy. If he does not, DEN seems primed to end the season on a Mile High Note. :P
San Francisco at Seattle(+3.5): They say save the best for last. A fight for their division title, and a chance for either team to take the one seed in the NFC and SF to have HFA throughout the playoffs. The first meeting between these two went down to the wire with SEA taking it on the road. Even with the injuries and new RBs, there has to be value on SEA at home getting more than a field goal.
Extra trends: The Seahawks are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games as a home underdog. San Francisco is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game
Singles 133-138-3 (+15.17u)
I have a few more parlays and BBDLS that I put in but it's 11am and I am going to head to the Ocean Casino in AC to put in my last SBBDLS for the season. Will post in the comments when I get back if I find some prop lines before game time. Good luck to all! :D
submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments]
Thursday Night Recap
Singles: 2-2 (-0.02u) Soooo close! Personally I think the OBJ conspiracy was real. He had 10 targets (the most) and almost scored the first TD on their first drive. Not only did his TD get reviewed and overturned but soon after, Juju was taken out of the game. On to the next one!
Parlay: 0-0 (0u) None
BBDLS: 0-0 (0u) Nothing of note here. We put in a free bet and it is still live, but there are much harder games to clear on this one. Lets ride the wave!
SBBDLS: 0-0 (0u) None
Teasers: 0-0 (0u) None
Dallas @ Detroit (-7): This weeks games opens up with a 1pm slate of games that are dooseys. Almost every one of these games feels like the favorite should win but they all have a reasonable percentage of underdog upsets. With Stafford playing the algo predicts this one 27-24 Dallas. But with no Stafford this game is going to rely on the Lions D and their backup QB. The Lions run d allows 4.6 ypc (22nd) and 130 ypg (26th). While their pass D averages giving up 272 ypg (27th) and a 100 passer rating (23rd). The Cowboys passing offense is 3rd in ypg, 4th in ypc, and 1st in ypa 1st. Last week Zeek had a horrible game vs min going 20 rushes for only 47 yards at 2.4 ypc... but he is still top 10 in rush yards with 78 per game. Some interesting stats to go with the Dallas run game:
New Orleans at Tampa Bay (+5): Just as the Dallas game, this game looks like it should be a win for the favorite just based upon the offense for the favorite vs the defense of the dog. However, there are definitely scenarios that have Tampa Bay coming away with an upset. The algo has this one as NO -2. Curiously it look-ahead around -7 and has moved down to settle in around 5. This is probably due to the fact the Saints were embarrassed last week by the Falcons. They came out of the bye with 0 energy and the Falcons took advantage. TB was able to pull through last week despite losing the turnover battle and trailing in the fourth. Tampa Bay's ability to protect the ball on offense and force a turnover on defense will be the key for a victory. "They’re 2-12 in games with 0 takeaways. When they force a takeaway, they’re 22-27. When they record exactly one takeaway, they’re 5-16. When they record exactly two, they’re 5-10. Three, as it turns out, is the magic number. When they record at least three, they’re 12-1. Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, New Orleans almost never commits three turnovers in a game. In fact, the Saints haven’t done so since 2017, and they haven’t committed two in any game this season." Uncharacteristically, Brees was sacked 6 times last week. Now he is going against Shaquile Barret this week who has 11.5 sacks (1st). The Saints do have Kamara back, but the TB rush D is tops allowing only 78 ypg (1st) and 3.4 ypc (3rd). Brees will likely look to the air as Thomas is on fire, averaging over 100 ypg, and the Tampa Bay pass D ranks bottom of the league giving up an average 299 ypg (league worst) and an average 100 passer rating (24th). In terms of injuries, almost everyone is a go. The only notable injury is Saints Marshon Lattimore. He has been ruled out and this should really add to the TB abuse of the deep ball. The algo does favor the Saints to win, but I don't think I can lay the points on this one.
Fun Fact: NFC South foes Tampa Bay and New Orleans have split their annual series every season since Jameis Winston entered the NFL. NO won the first meeting.
Atlanta at Carolina (-5): My algo has this coming out at Carolina -7. I understand the movement as Atlanta got a huge upset last Sunday and Carolina lost by 2 inches. Before we jump into the stats, I think the most important information for this game is Carolina’s starting tackles, Dennis Daley and Greg Little are both questionable for the game. If they play, I see Kyle Allen having time to throw, CMC having holes to run through, and little resistance from an ATL secondary that ranks near the bottom in everything. However, if those tackles are out, ATL may be able to repeat last weeks performance (6 sacks and 11 QB hits) and give themselves opportunity at another big divisional upset. Other injuries to note: The Falcons will be without tight end Austin Hooper, their receptions (56) and receiving touchdown (six) leader who is out with an MCL sprain. The Panthers will be without defensive back Ross Cockrell (quad), who has played a big role in a variety of positions in the secondary. But, for the Panthers, cornerback James Bradberry back. I am leaning towards Carolina here and while the focus will be on CMC, I think the edge can be found with the WR's in this one.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-2.5): Whoa. Two completely different QBs than the previous week for both teams. It looks as if Brissett is back for the Colts, and after 9 weeks with no BDN, Nick Foals returns. My algo has this game at 22-22 with some HFA to be added in for Indy. This looks like what Vegas got too because they made the spread -3 (hfa on a pk) and the total around 44. Looks like they don't know how to handle the QB change and decided to let the market dictate the price. The Jags are coming off a bye and see the return of wide receiver Dede Westbrook (neck), cornerback D.J. Hayden (neck) and linebacker Quincy Williams (hamstring). Both teams have rush defenses that rank in the bottom of the league, but on the flip side, both teams have rushing offenses that are pretty good. With Jax having the clear edge here. A key stat to note for the Jax rush defense is they are 4-0 when holding opponents under 100 yards rushing...but they are 0-5 when they dont. Without TY Hilton again this week to help stretch the field, I feel like JAX will be able to stack the box and keep the rush yards for IND to a minimum.
Denver at Minnesota (-10): This is another game where I dont think Vegas knows how to cap it. My algo came out with 15-25 MIN. They Vegas spread is -10 with a total of 40. It seems they know the public will like MIN just seeing them come off a win on prime time. As you have probably guessed, my gut leans DEN as I took them on Thursday in my BBDLS parlay. Let's look into the game to see what else is going on. First, we see Denver coming off a bye. Yet another QB named with the last name Allen hopped into the NFL, replacing the injured Joe Flacco and he was 12-of-20 passing for 193 yards and two touchdowns while beating the Cleveland Browns in his first career start. Then, he went into a bye week, giving him double time to get in sync with the plays and the receivers. You know what, there are stats that say the Vikings offense is legit, and the Broncos D is legit. They both have decent running games and run defenses. I'd say the key here is if Min can pressure the young QB. If they can...its a wrap. If they can't? I see Denver with an easy cover and possibly an upset.
NY Jets at Washington (-2.5) This is a curious coin flip of two bottom of the barrel teams this year. The Jets are coming of a win and the Redskins are coming off a bye. This feels like an under game. My algo has this at 20-20 but there is no adjustment for Haskins yet. He has had an extra week to prepare, but the Redskins tend to rely on AP to generate some running game. He will be going against a Jets run D that is L.E.G.I.T. giving up only 3ypc (best in the league) and 82 ypg (2nd). The Redskins run game will an added boost in Guice who will be returning. Honestly, all the numbers lean Jets favor. However... everywhere I look 70-75% of the bets are on the Jets...and the number keeps pushing in their favor. This is usually a big red flag to take the opposite of the majority!
Buffalo at Miami (+6.5): My algo has this 22-20 Buffalo. This is an interesting rematch of a divisional battle. This time though Frank Gore will be returning home to battle his old team in front of his family. Also Jordan Phillips, Bills defensive tackle is returning to where he was originally drafted. He is having a monster year, so watch out! Looking at the Bills offense, it has been pretty mediocre. However, it will be facing a Dolphins defense that ranks bottom in almost everything. ( 31st in points allowed, 29th in total yards, and 30th in sacks per attempt ) Im sure the Bills would like to see their RBs get it going in this match up, but the MIA run d hasn't been that bad. If you take out the games against Baltimore and Dallas (they gave up 500 rush yards in those two combined) then they only averaging giving up 116 per game. If they can hold Buffalo under 100 yards, the potential for an upset exists. The Bills have only ONE win in the 14 games where they failed to rush for at least 100 yards since Sean McDermott took over as coach. They had only 84 last week in Cleveland.
Houston at Baltimore (-4.5): Oooo, this is probably going to be my favorite game of the 1pms. I rarely watch the games, but I am excited to see these teams match up. My algo has this game Bal -4.5. Lining right up with the Vegas spread. Will Fuller has been ruled out for HOU. I dont have analysis for this because Baltimore should be leading in most if not all categories. But I am going to give my gut play here and its ride with the Texans. No analysis, just gut.
Arizona at San Fransico (-9.5) Another divisional rematch. This one is interesting because it has seen a pretty big line movement. It opened in most places as high as -14. But has moved to settle around 9.5/10. My algo actually has this as SF -12.5, however that doesn't account for any injuries...of which the 49ers seem to have in spades. The Niners will be without running back Matt Breida, Joe Staley, and kicker Robbie Gould. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair has been ruled out as he has not cleared the concussion protocol. Defensive lineman D.J. Jones has a groin injury that will sideline him this week. Emmanuel Sanders is hurt but looks to play and Kittle is listed as doubtful but who knows, we saw him dominate the last game vs AZ after his knee got reversed. Honestly, almost every article I read said the same thing. 49ers are mad injured, played 5 quarters on Monday and lost, and now play a divisional opponent on a short week that they only beat by 3 points just 2 weeks ago, bet the Cards to cover and possibly upset. That was my original train of thought too. Then I looked at the public betting percentages. Everywhere you look, 2 out of 3 spread tickets are on the Cards with some places over 70%. Yet the line has had a ton of trouble breaking 10 and with all that love for AZ you'd think it would drop to 7.5/8.5. Because of this, it appears the edge may actually be with the home team to win a blowout. Should be interesting to see what happens!
New England @ Philadelphia (+4.5): An interesting match up here. My algo has this 24-21 NE. Both teams are coming off a bye with limited injuries. The Pats will be without safety Chung, and the Eagles will be without darren sproles, alshon jeffery and deshean jackson. Jordan Mathews is questionable, but Ajayi was signed his week to help with RB depth. What makes this pick really hard is even with all these injuries to the Eagles and Bellichek's after a bye win percentage, AND 80% of the picks being on NE...the line has only moved a point, a point and a half a most. How big are the bets on the Eagles right now to keep the line from ballooning? The Eagles run d is legit, but their secondary is still crap. The Pats D was exposed last week but that was vs an MVP caliber QB lead offense. How has this line not moved?! I want to bet the Pats so bad, but there is this thread pulling at me to take the Eagles. Choose with care here boys.
Cincinatti @ Oakland (-11.5): There isn't much to say here. Cincy is winless and starting a backup QB that was destroyed last week. Oakland has some energy. They fought through a grueling road schedule and now get some rest at home. But, 11.5 points for an OAK team this year just seems like too much. And 11.5 for a cincy team with a back up QB on the road when he just lost by 40 at home...cant do it. The algo has this 24-18 OAK but thats not adjusted for the new QB. Honestly I dont have an adjustment for him because I dont know who he is! I am riding OAK to win in some parlays but points are tough. Knock on wood if you're with me. :D
Chicago @ LA Rams(-6): Last game of the day. Prime time NFC match up. While both of these teams are technically still live for a wild card spot, I don't think either will realistically make it. The Rams have a shot if they can win here AND win vs Dallas and Seattle but honestly I dont see that happening this year. Crazy enough, my algo has this game 21-20 Bears... I think if Montgomery is a go for CHI this game is much tighter. But if he sits, I dont see the offense for the Bears having as much rhythm.
Kansas City vs LA Chargers (+4): I dont normally add the Monday game into these write ups, but since I will have this team in my parlays and teasers, I decided to add it. I am betting this for only one piece of info I heard. (My algo actually likes the opposite side here) This game is in Mexico City. The elevation there is higher than Denver. The Chargers spent all week practicing in Denver to get their bodies acclimated to the elevation. Kansas City has stayed home. With as bad as the KC defense is, the elevation factor, and 4 points...I will be siding with old man Rivers to 2nd half comeback and cover. (and possibly win!)
Note: We have approx 17u in Bonus money from Refer-A-Friend Bonus. Also, Borgata Sportsbook emailed me this week and offered me 10u in free bets just because I made an account there a year ago and never played. Unlike alllll the other sites in NJ, it does have a rollover. It is 6x, so I will use these free bets on only parlays that way if I hit one, I will have extra funds to hit the rollover without playing it for many weeks.
Going really basic this week. Mostly spreads.
Singles 73-72-2 (+26.78u)
submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments]
Hi All! Big slate with some really nice match ups. First lets recap the TNF game.
Singles: 0-4 (-6.13u)
Notes: Well, this was a rough one to watch. On the bright side, I learned a lot! The Broncos almost had that first quarter. They came out strong, but I think they were a little deflated after missing the two point conversion. Conversely Maholmes came out much hotter than expected. It sucked seeing PM go down like that so early in the game but, it gave our wagers life. The QB for the other side however, Flacco, is done. (IMO) He may have another good game here and there, but he looks SHOOK. He looks so scared to stand in the pocket and take a hit. I think any team that can pressure him will have easy wins. Tyreek Alllmost came through for us in the end having a bomb for a TD, but not quite reaching the yards needed. Sucks we lost our picks, but good to learn about Flacco.
Early Games (1pm)
Arizona @ NY Giants (-3/-4): A fantastic match up to start the day with! Two first round QB picks go head to head. The number one pick, Kyler Murray, and company are coming in with a 2 game win streak while the number 6 pick, Daniel Jones, and the Giants are returning from a few extra days of rest. This extra rest comes at the perfect time as the Giants are getting back offensive juggernaut, Saquan Barkley. They also see the return of a favorable target in TE Evan Ingram. Other than Sterling Shepherd not returning for the Giants, they seem to be near full strength. The Cardinals, not so much. While they do see the return of Patrick Peterson (6 game suspension), they are going to be a little short on offense. So far out is (DL) Zach Allen (neck), (RB) D.Jd. Foster (hamstring) and (OL) Brett Toth (illness). Game time decisions are (WR) Christian Kirk and (RB) David Johnson who is probable to play (but with an ankle injury). If for some reason he is out, Arizona will be down to only 1 RB, Chase Edmunds. They could use both of those RBs to help pull linebackers in because the Giants are horrible against the pass. So far they have let opposing QBs average a 103 Passer rating and put up 285 yards p/g passing They rank 27th in points allowed and 28th in yards conceded. (however, I take these stats with a grain of salt. First two games Giants were flat because Eli, after that Saquan was out, costing the Giants TOP and putting their defense on the field longer) Luckily for NY, the Arizona defense is worse. The are 29th in points allowed, 30th in yards conceded and are the only team in the league not to have an INT. Combine the return of Evan Ingram with a Cardinals defense that has given up a league-high 599 yards and seven touchdowns to tight ends...
I think this is also a good game to look at props:
Houston @ Indianapolis(PK/-1): Here we have one of the more anticipated match ups of the day. A divisional battle for the current 1st place in the division. Both are coming off an upset victory over the Chiefs in Arrowhead. But, the Colts are coming off a bye week and extra rest. First we start with injuries. The Colts utilized their bye week and are nearing full strength. (LB) Darius Leonard has been out for 3 games, but looks to return. The Texans have sustained some key injuries. They lost Bradley Roby (corner) and offensive tackle Tytus Howard. DeAndre Hopkins was limited in practice (ribs) but appears to be a go for Sunday. The Texans offense is pretty good. They are 1st in the league on 3rd down completion and averaging 4.9 ypc on the ground. The Colts D is pretty weak vs. the run giving up 5.1ypc (28th). Their pass D is pretty horrible too, giving out ratings of: QBR (29th) completion % (26th) and 3rd down stopping (26th). However, it is the same story on the other side of the ball as the Colts run offense averages 142 ypg (4th) and 4.5 ypc (13th). They are going against a Texans run D that gives up 4.4 ypc (18th). The Colts offense is (9th) on 3rd down at 46% and Houston is bottom 10 in the league at 3rd down stoppage. There are these interesting stats: Jacoby Brisset has only been sacked 6 times this year and colts are currently the least penalized team in the league. Also, Brisset is somehow 3-0 vs Houston? (Not sure this stat means much).
My algo has this one as a 21-21 PK. That doesn't include a HFA adjustment. This easily has me leaning the home team. Personally, I feel like the extra rest, the HFA, and the offensive line/run game of the Colts are the factors that tip the scale. (I do like the Colts in this game, but I still favor Houston to win the division)
Something to keep in mind for this game. Yea, Watson has put up over 80 points the last two weeks...But how did he look against two of the three formidable defenses he faced? 13 points against JAX and 10 points against the Panthers. Both home games. He did score 28 against the Saints D....but that was week 1, when everyone is just getting in the flow. I expect the Colts to to a much better job at keeping the Texans below 20 points.
If I was looking props in this game, it would be Marlon Mack for IND.
Miami @ Buffalo(-16.5/-17): Probably one of the lesser watched games of the slate. Buffalo is coming off a nice rest. Miami is coming off a missed Tua-point conversion that was probably their best shot at a win this year. They also benched Rosen in the middle of last game for Fitzpatrick. He came in and did OK vs the Redskins throwing 12-18 for 132 yards, 1 TD and almost a 107 QBR. However, that was vs. a Redskins D. This is vs. a Bills D that is top 5 in pretty much every category. They also have a takeaway in 4 out of 5 games this season. Which sucks for Fitz-running out of- Magic who through 4 INTs in BOTH game 1 and game 2 for Miami. Bills rush offense averages 139 ypg (6th) and 4.8 ypc (10th) and they will be facing a Miami defense that has 4.7 ypc allowed (23rd). Here you would think the focus will be on Frank Gore one of his former teams, but personally I think the focus is going to shift to the return of Rookie (RB) Devin Singletary. He has missed the Bills last 3 games with a hamstring injury, but looks ready to go. The Bills should look to use him to balance the load on the aging Gore. Fitz is a favorite to throw a TD and and INT. But barring some miracle defensive showing from the Dolphins, i see this one as an easy win for Buffalo.
Jacksonville @ Cincinatti(+4/+4.5): Here we see if the Stash can get back on track, vs the win less Bengals. The Bengals are 0-6, but they have lost 4 of those 6 by less than a TD. Jacksonville was disappointing at home last week but I think more credit has to be given to the Saints D rather than taken away from Jacksonville. First lets dive into the injuries. The Bengals have a ton: OUT: (OT) Cordy Glenn (suspended); (WR) A.J. Green (ankle); (OT) Andre Smith (ankle); (CB) William Jackson III (shoulder); (CB) Dre Kirkpatrick (knee); (DE) Carl Lawson (hamstring); (G )John Miller (groin). Doubtful: (DE) Carlos Dunlap (knee). The Jags injuries are all on the offensive side of the ball: Out: (WR) Marqise Lee (ankle); (TE) Geoff Swaim (concussion/ankle). Questionable: (WR) Dede Westbrook (shoulder). However, the Jags are very Four-tu-nette to have Leonard on their team. He has 584 yards with 5.1 ypc and is facing a Cincy run D that gives up 5.3 ypc. (good for last in the NFL) Looking defensively, the Jags 19 sacks (4th) this year and Dalton has been sacked 22 times this year (28th). The Mustache has has 9 TDs to 2 picks and a 97.5 passer rating (13th). I look for him to get back on track this week against a Bengals pass D that has let opposing QBs have a 105 passer rating (27th) and 69% completion percentage (24th). If I look at props this game, I will probably be looking the way of DJ Chark. He has been killing it since the insertion of Minshew and with the string of offensive weapons out for Jacksonville, I look for Chark to have increased opportunities. \**Another props look might be Joe Mixon. He has averaged over 100 yards in his last 10 home games. (Although a main counter to this stat is the most likely game script has Cincy playing from behind meaning less rushing opportunities) His total is currently only at 67.5.*
San Francisco @ Washington (+9.5/+10): Another game this will likely be one of the least watched. The undefeated 49ers travel to D.C. to take on the Redskins who are coming off their first and likely only victory this season. This game sees the 49ers coach return to the place that last fired him. First we look at the injuries. For the Redskins, Running back Chris Thompson is OUT with a toe injury. Tight end Vernon Davis is OUT with a concussion. Offensive lineman Wes Martin is OUT with a chest injury. Deshazor Everett is OUT with an ankle injury. Linebacker Josh Harvey-Clemson is OUT with a hamstring injury and Cornerback Josh Norman is QUESTIONABLE with thigh/hand injuries. For the 49ers, OUT is (DT) DJ Jones (hamstring), (CB) Ahkello Witherspoon (foot), (FB) Kyle Juszczyk (knee), (OT) Mike McGlinchey (knee), (OT) Joe Staley (fibula), and (WR) Deebo Samuel (groin). With (RB) Raheem Mostert (knee) listed as questionable. The 49er offense is pretty good with their rush offense leading the way. Rushing for 180 ypg and doing so at 4.6 ypc. The Redskins rush D gives up 134 ypg at 4.6ypc. Sadly the Redskins pass D isn't much either, allowing opposing QBs an average 71% completion percentage and a 101 passer rating. My algo has this as SF -14. (However, this is before injuries and... the allllll important trip from West coast to East coast for a 1pm game... adjustments have been made) The algo has this as a 31-17 game but I can easily see SF putting up more...OR less. For that reason this will probably be a no play for me. (Although, as my consistent readers know, I love betting the first quarter against West coast teams traveling east for a 1pm game. This may get a look, especially if I can find a +3 or better for WAS.)
Oakland @ Green Bay(-4.5/-5/-5.5): One of the bigger and more curious line movements of the week. Opened at -7, Green Bay WON vs the Lions, and the line has moved allllll the way do to settle at -4.5 at most available books. Very Very curious to me. Not only is then line moving against Green Bay (getting almost half the tickets written on them), but GB WON their last game!!! This has to be a red flag for heavy sharp action on the Raiders point spread. Which, when we dive in, has some serious merit. First of all, the Raiders are coming off a bye, having played their last game two weeks ago in London and put an upset on the Bears. Secondly, the Oakland offense is doing pretty well right now. Derrick Carr is leading the league in completion percentage at 73.3%. To compliment that, the Raiders rush attack is running at an average of 4.9 ypc and gaining and average 134 ypg. The GB rush D has given up 120 ypg in 4 out of 6 games this year and is averaging giving up 124 ypg rushing on the season. Unfortunately for the Raiders, their Pass D isn't the best. They did pretty well in their last game, but it was against a Chase Daniel lead Bears offense. Overall they give up an average 104 QBR (26th) to opposing QBs and 264 ypg (22nd). Let's take a look at the injury report. For the Packers, receiver Davante Adams (toe) and safety Darnell Savage (ankle) are both out. Receiver Geronimo Allison (concussion) and tight end Robert Tonyan (hip) are doubtful and defensive lineman Kenny Clark (calf/back), receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling (ankle/back) and cornerback Tony Brown (hamstring) are all questionable. On the bright side for the Pack, cornerback Kevin King, tight end Jimmy Graham and cornerback Tramon Williams are all expected to play. For the Raiders, Tyrell Williams and Arden Key are OUT. Right tackle Trent Brown is doubtful, while receivereturner Dwayne Harris and guard Gabe Jackson are both questionable. The Algo has GB as -5.5 in this one, but the the heavy line movement that is counter to GB having a win on Monday night has me leaning OAK or stay away.
Minnesota @ Detroit(+2.5): Minnesota coming off back to back wins where Cousins took care of both his crying receivers. Detroit is coming off a heartbreaking loss that in the opinion of many could be chalked up to the Refs. However when we look closer we see that the Lions were 3 of 13 on 3rd down and kicked 5 field goals (two inside the ten yard line). They also had a stupid 12 men on the field penalty in a key spot. Let's take a look at the injury reports. For the Lions, no new injuries appeared to take anyone out of the game. Defensive tackle Da’Shawn Hand, safety Quandre Diggs, offensive tackle Rick Wagner, fullback Nick Bawden, and cornerback Darius Slay are all questionable, but all will most likely play. For the Vikings, only line backer Ben Gedeon is out, while LB Kentrell Brothers remains questionable. This feels like it has the makings of a low scoring game where Stafford has the ball in his hands to win it or lose it in the 4th. Will he redeem the divisional loss to Rodgers on MNF in the closing minutes? Or will the Lions fade away in the division race? The Minn D speaks for itself, top 10 in EVERY Defensive category. The Minn run game is also elite averaging 5.1 ypc (3rd) and it will be facing a Detroit run D that gives up 5.1 ypc(28th). My model had this opening at Detroit -1.5 but after the loss the GB, I can see why the line is moving. I can't imagine it getting up to +3 but if it does, I will be all over the Lions. I would have to say my strongest lean here is towards the Under. Barring a few defensive scores, I think this game is ground and pound with a side of slow clock management and has a good shot at staying under the total. I would be surprised if either team scores over 21 here. The Vikings (even with the 28-10 win over the NYG) are only averaging 17 ppg on the road. I will be looking for a closer game and leaning under the total.
L.A. Rams @ Atlanta (+3): The last 1pm game on the slate and it's a tough one to decipher. The Rams started off great going 3-0 but have since dropped 3 straight. (Two against division opponents) The Falcon's, while it looks like a shit show sitting at 1-5, actually still have a outside shot at winning their division. This is because they haven't played ANY of their divisional games yet. It would be sooooo sweet to see them somehow go 6-0 in the division and lose every other game but still win the division. Which...if their defense can somehow get good overnight.. could actually be a possibility with the way Matt Ryan is playing. Last week he went 30-36 350+ yards 4 TDs and a 145 QBR. He has had a 300+ yard passing game EVERY GAME this season. And only thrown less than 2 TDs one time. Unfortunately for him, he faces the Rams D that only gives up 241 ypg (14th) The placed Talib on IR, and traded away Marcus Peters, but replaced him with a fancy new toy in Jaylen Ramsey. On the other side of the ball we have the Rams offense. Which it seems like something is a little GeOFF. Geoff has 7 TDs and 7 picks with a QBR of 80...On the bright side for Geoff, he seems to be better when he isn't pressured (as are all QBs) and the Falcons only have 5 sacks on the year. He will be facing a Falcons third down defense that is the worst in the league allowing almost half of the 3rd down plays to convert against them. This should be a defense for Geoff to get right against as they allow an average QBR of 120 while allowing opposing QBs to throw for 8.3 ypa. All signs point to an LA bounce back. No real injuries to note. Gurley is back for the Rams. The Falcon's are without star defensive player Desmond Trufant but honestly, he hasn't looked good enough this year for me to warrant that a big drop. My algo has this as LA -1. There is a good chance come game time I am leaning Falcons with the points. \**Interesting note, this game also falls into my favorite spot, West coast teams traveling East for a 1pm start****
Afternoon Games (4pm)
L.A. Chargers @ Tennessee (-2.5): For our first afternoon game of the slate we have two crappy teams, likely to miss the playoffs. On the one hand we have the Chargers who have lost 2 straight as a favorite. On the other side of the ball we have the Titans that have also lost 2 straight. First lets look at injuries. Los Angeles will be without their two starting defensive tackles, Justin Jones and Brandon Mebane. Melvin Ingram is doubtful. The Titans have some questionable ( http://www.espn.com/nfl/injuries/_/team/ten ) but the most note worthy injury is the possible absence of Delanie Walker. Starting with the Chargers, they have been horrible in the turnover department, giving up 3 in each of their recent losses and a whopping 11 on the season so far. One bright spot for the Chargers is the opportunity at pass rush. They currently only have 12 sacks on the season but in this game they face a Titans team that has allowed 29 sacks! (the most in the NFL) It would be nice if the Chargers could get their run game back on track, having 4 straight games under 100 yards rushing and averaging only 3.8 ypc. Rivers is going to have his hands full, facing a Titans D that is legit. They only give up an average of 217 ypg passing (6th) and limit opposing QBs to a 86.4 QBR (11th). While this is probably going to be a crappy game, my algo has the Chargers coming out as -3.5 favorite, predicting a low scoring affair around the 18-13 range. Should be interesting to see which team gives themselves some hope!
New Orleans @ Chicago(-4/-4.5): New Orleans rolls into Chicago riding a hot 4 game win streak on the back of an even hotter defense. Although this week the Saints will be without Jared Cook, Alvin Kamar, and Tre'quan Smith. Chicago tries to wake up as they see the return of QB Mitch Trubitsky and WR Taylor Gabriel after a bye week and some rest. Currently the Bears offense needs some work. They have only scored an average of 17.4 ppg (27th), gain 266 ypg (30th), pass for 185 ypg (30th) and convert on only 1 out of 3 third downs. That offense is going up a Saints D that has been on fire. They haven't allowed more than 260 yards in their last 3 games and their pass rush has a 33% pressure rate (3rd) and 18 sacks (6th). The Saints are going up against a rested Bears D that is only giving up 14 ppg (3rd) and has 10 turnovers (9th) in 5 games. Currently this is an underdog or stay away for me. My Algo has Chicago as 4 point favorites in a 17-13 style game AND the RLM (3 out of 5 tickets are on NO and the points but the line has moved from a -3 open to -4/-4.5) indicates that sharp money is on Chicago... But I cant help thinking the #Saints are #Blessed. Given that a positive case can be made for both sides, it is probably best to avoid this game. However, I may be looking at the Under given both teams defensive track records.
Baltimore @ Seattle (-2/-3): Ooooo boy, I am excited to see this one. Not that there are many playoff implications, as this is a non conference match up, but I am excited to see both of these teams (that are usually known for defense) compete with their explosive QBs. First off, very curious that the lines I have are -2 and -3 and not -2.5 and -3. The DK/SH books must have had a recent large wager on Baltimore. Russel Wilson is currently on fire and seriously stating his claim to the MVP trophy this year. He has 14 TDs and 0 INTs with a QBR of 125. He averages 9 yards per attempt (2nd) and has a completion percentage of 72.5!!! However for this game he will be without one of his favorite targets this year, Will Dissly. On the other side of the ball we have the have the Seattle D. So far, the rush D is giving up 4.7 ypc (27th) which doesn't bode well vs. the combo of Mark Ingram and the designed run plays for Jackson. \**An interesting note someone tweeted:* Russell Wilson's three career pick-sixes have gone to a King, a Prince, and a Captain, and he plays an Earl this Sunday. Safety Earl Thomas returns to Seattle this Sunday as a part of the Raven's team. He left Seattle after an injury during a contract hold out in 2018.\***
If I had to take a side, I feel like it would be the dog and the points. 4 of 5 of Seattle's wins this year have been by 4 points or less and 4 of Baltimore's games have been decided by a TD or less. This does have potential for a teaser. (Baltimore and the over)
Night Game (8 pm)
Philadelphia @ Dallas (-2.5/-3): For the last game of the day we have a battle for the NFC east. The coach for the Eagles was heard on a radio show saying "we're gonna win this game". The Eagles come into this game after getting smoked by the Vikings. Dallas is in a similar sinking ship losing their last 3. But, last year they started in the same ship going 3-5 only to finish 10-6. To plug the holes, it's going to have to start with turnovers. They had 2 in their first 3 games, but have given up 6 in their 3 losses. The Eagles offense looks decent. With Wentz throwing for 12 TDs - 3 INTs, averaging 243 ypg with a 94 QBR. The Eagles rushing attack is getting 4 ypc (19th) and 111 ypg (15th). The Eagles D on the other hand is medicare - bad. The Eagles Do have 14 sacks...but 10 of them came in one game (Jets). The Eagles Pass D gives up 280 ypg (29th) and has given up 13 pass TDs (28th). The Eagles like to stack the box which is bad news for Zeke, but that is good news for all of Dallas WRs. Because of the heavy run stuffing action that Philly produces, they have created a defense that is extremely susceptible to big plays in the air. "No team has allowed more 30-yard passing touchdowns or more 100-yard receivers than the Eagles"
The injury reports for both teams:
Singles 37-41 (+4.33u)
Big fun is always on at Little Six, where you're guaranteed to find a little something for everyone. Play real casino favorites at home for free in the Mystic Slots app—slots, blackjack, video poker and more! Available on the App Store; Get it on Google Play; 55+ Swipe & Win. Wednesday, 1/06. Details. Winter Night Delights. Wednesday, 1/06. Details. January Jumpstart. Saturday, 1/09. Details ... Little Six Casino Minnesota, free honeycomb slots, full tilt poker app iphone download, ffx 4 slot ribbon armor Minneapolis, Minnesota. 2. DWI. Review of Little Six Casino. Reviewed October 16, 2019 . Little six Casino does tell people if they leave the car there it'll get told and threaten you. They basically force you to get into the car and then they called the police to see if you are over legal limit of .08. It would be cheaper to leave your car there and get a towed or broken in to. Date of ... 100+ casino classics like slots, video poker, blackjack and bingo are in the palm of your hand! Play anytime, anywhere with Mystic Lake’s social casino game. LEARN MORE; Download ; Big Win$ - Players Who Got a Little Lucky. Congratulations to Douglas for Winning $24,305. Congratulations to Judith for Winning $22,787. Congratulations to Jared for Winning $12,754. Congratulations to Jennifer ... Jerome was born on March 8, 1931 in Buckman, Minnesota to the late Henry and Helen (Kohler) Otremba. He joined the Navy in 1952 and served in the Korean War, he was honorably discharged in 1956. Jerome worked as a Hydroelectric Operator for Minnesota Power for 33 years. Jerome married Rita LeMieur on September 17, 1956 at St. Mary’s Catholic Church in Little Falls. Together they raised 5 ... Little Six Casino details page: This casino is an indian casino and can be found in Prior Lake, Minnesota. Little Six Casino has a total of 777 gaming machines and 8 table games for your enjoyment. World Casino Directory also books casino hotel reservations in Prior Lake. You will also find pictures of Little Six Casino or read recent headlines about Little Six Casino on our site. I tell everybody NOT ever go thru their doors again and have friend, that gamble with quite a bit of money, that said they are done with the little six-mystic lake craphole. I offer free rides to treasure island. If y'all need a ride let me know please. It's better to get a ride there the be taken for a ride at that poor excuse of a casino. Thank you thank you little six for not budging on ... Little Six Casino, owned and operated by the Shakopee Mdewakanton Sioux Community, is located in Prior Lake, Minnesota. Given its proximity to the Twin Cities area, less than 30-miles and 30-minutes away, it attracts countless players throughout the year. The gaming options at Little Six Casino include more than 800 slot machines as well as several different blackjack tables with a variety of ... Little Six Casino at Prior Lake, Minnesota has a 25,000 square foot casino gambling floor with 810 slots and eight table games. Address Little Six Casino 2450 Sioux Trail Northwest Prior Lake, Minnesota 55372 . Contact Information Tel: 952-445-6000 Tel: 800-548-8536 Website Casino Promotions Little Six Casino is the smaller, more intimate gaming enterprise owned by the Shakopee Mdewakanton Sioux Community. With beginnings as a bingo hall in 1982, this casino near first expanded into Little Six Bingo and Casino in 1987, and reopened at its current location in December 2007. Little Six Casino offers casino games, fun promotions, and delicious dining to its guests. What Visitors Can ...
[index]          
I GOT GTA 6 EARLY... No You Didn't 🡆 Follow me on Twitter - https://twitter.com/ZacCoxTV🡆 Follow my Instagram - http://instagram.com/ZacCoxTV🡆 Like My Fac... Mandy, a prostitute in Maryland, services up to ten clients a day to feed her heroin addiction. With her drug habit becoming more intense, it motivates her t... Official video for “Minnesota” from the Lil Boat Mixtape - listen + buy https://Yachty.lnk.to/MinnesotaShare GIFS from the video http://www.giphy.com/LilYac... Kerby Revelus, 23, fatally stabbed his 17-year-old sister and chopped his 5-year-old sister head in front of a police officer and then turned to his 9-year-o... "4 Gold Chains" out now on iTunes, Spotify and more: http://smarturl.it/4GoldChainsFeaturing and Produced by Clams Casino Directed by Lil Peep & Heavy RaynSh... Rain Man 16 December 1988Director: Barry LevinsonCast: Dustin HoffmanTom CruiseValeria GolinoMusic: Hans Zimmer - Vegas/End Credits